Development and evaluating multimarker models for guiding treatment decisions

Financial support for ProTWIN trial was provided by The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), the Hague, the Netherlands (grant number 200310004). Parvin Tajik is supported by an AXA Research Fund.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma-2 P12A polymorphism and risk of acute myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke: A case-cohort study and meta-analyses

The alanine allele of P12A polymorphism in PPARG gene in a few studies has been associated with a reduced or increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Yet, the risk relation has not been confirmed, and data on ischemic stroke (IS) is scarce. We therefore investigated the role of this polymorphism on occurrence of AMI, coronary heart disease (CHD) and IS. We performed a case-cohort study in 15,236 initially healthy Dutch women and applied a Cox proportional hazards model to study the relation of the P12A polymorphism and AMI (n = 71), CHD (n = 211), and IS (n = 49) under different inheritance models. In addition, meta-analyses of published studies were performed. Under the dominant inheritance model, carriers of the alanine allele compared with those with the more common genotype were not at increased or decreased risk of CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58 to 1.17) and of IS (HR = 1.03; 95% CI, 0.14 to 7.74). In addition no relations were found under the recessive and additive models. Our meta-analyses corroborated these findings by showing no significant association. For AMI we found a borderline significant association under dominant (HR = 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.94), and additive (HR = 0.51; 95% CI, 0.26 to 1.00) models which could be due to chance, because of small cases in this subgroup. The meta-analysis did not show any association between the polymorphism and risk of AMI under the different genetic models. Our study in healthy Dutch women in combination with the meta-analyses of previous reports does not provide support for a role of P12A polymorphism in PPARG gene in MI and CHD risk. Also our study shows that the polymorphism has no association with IS ris

Influence of Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension-Type Diet, Known Genetic Variants and Their Interplay on Blood Pressure in Early Childhood ABCD Study

There is limited evidence on association between adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH diet) and a lower blood pressure (BP) in children. In a population-based cohort study, among 1068 Dutch children aged 5 to 7, we evaluated the association between a DASH-type diet, 29 known genetic variants incorporated in a genetic risk score, and their interaction on BP. We calculated DASH score based on the food intake data measured through a validated 71-item food frequency questionnaire. In our sample, DASH score ranged from 9 (low adherence to the DASH diet) to 33 (median=21), and genetic score ranged from 18 (low genetic risk on high BP) to 41 (median=29). After adjustment for covariates, each 10 unit increase in DASH score was associated with a lower systolic BP of 0.7 mm Hg (P=0.033). DASH score was negatively associated with hypertension (odds ratio=0.96 [0.92-0.99], P=0.044). Similarly, each SD increment in genetic score was associated with 0.5 mm Hg higher diastolic BP (P=0.002). We found a positive interaction between low DASH score and high genetic score on diastolic BP adjusted for BP risk factors (β=1.52, Pinteraction=0.019 in additive scale and β=0.03, Pinteraction=0.021 in multiplicative scale). Our findings show that adherence to the DASH-type diet, as well as a low (adult-derived) genetic risk profile for BP, is associated with lower BP in children and that the genetic basis of BP phenotypes at least partly overlaps between adults and children. In addition, we found evidence of a gene-diet interaction on BP in children

Ideal cardiovascular health among Ghanaian populations in three European countries and rural and urban Ghana: the RODAM study.

Cardiovascular health (CVH) is a construct defined by the American Heart Association (AHA) as part of its 2020 Impact Goal definition. CVH has, until now, not been evaluated in Sub-Saharan African populations. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in the prevalence of ideal CVH and its constituent metrics among Ghanaians living in rural and urban Ghana and Ghanaian migrants living in three European countries. The AHA definition of CVH is based on 7 metrics: smoking, body mass index, diet, physical activity, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose. These were evaluated among 3510 Ghanaian adults (aged 25-70 years) residing in rural and urban Ghana and three European cities (Amsterdam, London and Berlin) in the multi-centre RODAM study. Differences between groups were assessed using logistic regression with adjustments for gender, age, and education. Only 0.3% of all participants met all 7 metrics of the AHA's definition of ideal CVH. Compared to rural Ghana (25.7%), the proportions and adjusted odds ratio (OR) of individuals who had 6-7 CVH metrics in the ideal category were substantially lower in urban Ghana, (7.5%; OR 0.204, 95% CI 0.15-0.29), Amsterdam (4.4%; 0.13, 0.08-0.19), Berlin (2.7%; 0.06, 0.03-0.11), and London (1.7%; 0.04, 0.02-0.09), respectively. The proportion of ideal CVH for the various metrics ranged from 96% for all sites in the smoking metric to below 6% in the diet metric. The proportion of ideal CVH is extremely low in Ghanaians, especially among those living in urban Ghana and Ghanaian migrants in Europe

Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis: Diagnostic Accuracy of Pro-C3 for Hepatic Fibrosis in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

The prevalence and severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing, yet adequately validated tests for care paths are limited and non-invasive markers of disease progression are urgently needed. The aim of this work was to summarize the performance of Pro-C3, a biomarker of active fibrogenesis, in detecting significant fibrosis (F ≥ 2), advanced fibrosis (F ≥ 3), cirrhosis (F4) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in patients with NAFLD. A sensitive search of five databases was performed in July 2021. Studies reporting Pro-C3 measurements and liver histology in adults with NAFLD without co-existing liver diseases were eligible. Meta-analysis was conducted by applying a bivariate random effects model to produce summary estimates of Pro-C3 accuracy. From 35 evaluated reports, eight studies met our inclusion criteria; 1568 patients were included in our meta-analysis of significant fibrosis and 2058 in that of advanced fibrosis. The area under the summary curve was 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.84) in detecting significant fibrosis and 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.82) for advanced fibrosis. Our results support Pro-C3 as an important candidate biomarker for non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis in NAFLD. Further direct comparisons with currently recommended non-invasive tests will demonstrate whether Pro-C3 panels can outperform these tests, and improve care paths for patients with NAFLD

Associations between maternal physical activity in early and late pregnancy and offspring birth size: remote federated individual level meta-analysis from eight cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence on the impact of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) in pregnancy on birth size is inconsistent. We aimed to examine the association between LTPA during early and late pregnancy and newborn anthropometric outcomes. DESIGN: Individual level meta-analysis, which reduces heterogeneity across studies. SETTING: A consortium of eight population-based studies (seven European and one US) comprising 72,694 participants. METHODS: Generalised linear models with consistent inclusion of confounders (gestational age, sex, parity, maternal age, education, ethnicity, BMI, smoking and alcohol intake) were used to test associations between self-reported LTPA at either early (8-18 weeks gestation) or late pregnancy (30+ weeks) and the outcomes. Results were pooled using random effects meta-analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Birth weight, Large-for-gestational age (LGA), macrosomia, small-for-gestational age (SGA), %body fat and ponderal index at birth. RESULTS: Late, but not early, gestation maternal moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), vigorous activity and LTPA energy expenditure were modestly inversely associated with BW, LGA, macrosomia and ponderal index, without heterogeneity (all: I-square=0%). For each extra hour/week of MVPA, RR for LGA and macrosomia were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96, 0.98) and 0.96 (95%CI: 0.94, 0.98) respectively. Associations were only modestly reduced after additional adjustments for maternal BMI and gestational diabetes. No measure of LTPA was associated with risk for SGA. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity in late, but not early, pregnancy is consistently associated with modestly lower risk of LGA and macrosomia, but not SGA. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Includes MRC, Wellcome Trust and NIHR

Biomarkers for staging fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (the LITMUS project): a comparative diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND The reference standard for detecting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and staging fibrosis-liver biopsy-is invasive and resource intensive. Non-invasive biomarkers are urgently needed, but few studies have compared these biomarkers in a single cohort. As part of the Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis (LITMUS) project, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 17 biomarkers and multimarker scores in detecting NASH and clinically significant fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and identify their optimal cutoffs as screening tests in clinical trial recruitment. METHODS This was a comparative diagnostic accuracy study in people with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD from 13 countries across Europe, recruited between Jan 6, 2010, and Dec 29, 2017, from the LITMUS metacohort of the prospective European NAFLD Registry. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with paired liver biopsy and serum samples were eligible; those with excessive alcohol consumption or evidence of other chronic liver diseases were excluded. The diagnostic accuracy of the biomarkers was expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with liver histology as the reference standard and compared with the Fibrosis-4 index for liver fibrosis (FIB-4) in the same subgroup. Target conditions were the presence of NASH with clinically significant fibrosis (ie, at-risk NASH; NAFLD Activity Score ≥4 and F≥2) or the presence of advanced fibrosis (F≥3), analysed in all participants with complete data. We identified thres holds for each biomarker for reducing the number of biopsy-based screen failures when recruiting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis for future trials. FINDINGS Of 1430 participants with NAFLD in the LITMUS metacohort with serum samples, 966 (403 women and 563 men) were included after all exclusion criteria had been applied. 335 (35%) of 966 participants had biopsy-confirmed NASH and clinically significant fibrosis and 271 (28%) had advanced fibrosis. For people with NASH and clinically significant fibrosis, no single biomarker or multimarker score significantly reached the predefined AUC 0·80 acceptability threshold (AUCs ranging from 0·61 [95% CI 0·54-0·67] for FibroScan controlled attenuation parameter to 0·81 [0·75-0·86] for SomaSignal), with accuracy mostly similar to FIB-4. Regarding detection of advanced fibrosis, SomaSignal (AUC 0·90 [95% CI 0·86-0·94]), ADAPT (0·85 [0·81-0·89]), and FibroScan liver stiffness measurement (0·83 [0·80-0·86]) reached acceptable accuracy. With 11 of 17 markers, histological screen failure rates could be reduced to 33% in trials if only people who were marker positive had a biopsy for evaluating eligibility. The best screening performance for NASH and clinically significant fibrosis was observed for SomaSignal (number needed to test [NNT] to find one true positive was four [95% CI 4-5]), then ADAPT (six [5-7]), MACK-3 (seven [6-8]), and PRO-C3 (nine [7-11]). INTERPRETATION None of the single markers or multimarker scores achieved the predefined acceptable AUC for replacing biopsy in detecting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis. However, several biomarkers could be applied in a prescreening strategy in clinical trial recruitment. The performance of promising markers will be further evaluated in the ongoing prospective LITMUS study cohort. FUNDING The Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking

The M235T Polymorphism in the AGT Gene and CHD Risk: Evidence of a Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium Violation and Publication Bias in a Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: The M235T polymorphism in the AGT gene has been related to an increased risk of hypertension. This finding may also suggest an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A case-cohort study was conducted in 1,732 unrelated middle-age women (210 CHD cases and 1,522 controls) from a prospective cohort of 15,236 initially healthy Dutch women. We applied a Cox proportional hazards model to study the association of the polymorphism with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (n = 71) and CHD. In the case-cohort study, no increased risk for CHD was found under the additive genetic model (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86 to 1.68; P = 0.28). This result was not changed by adjustment (HR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.64; P = 0.38) nor by using dominant, recessive and pairwise genetic models. Analyses for AMI risk under the additive genetic model also did not show any statistically significant association (crude HR = 1.14; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.39; P = 0.20). To evaluate the association, a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis were undertaken of all studies published up to February 2007 (searched through PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE). The meta-analysis (38 studies with 13284 cases and 18722 controls) showed a per-allele odds ratio (OR) of 1.08 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.15; P = 0.02). Moderate to large levels of heterogeneity were identified between studies. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) violation and the mean age of cases were statistically significant sources of the observed variation. In a stratum of non-HWE violation studies, there was no effect. An asymmetric funnel plot, the Egger's test (P = 0.066), and the Begg-Mazumdar test (P = 0.074) were all suggestive of the presence of publication bias. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The pooled OR of the present meta-analysis, including our own data, presented evidence that there is an increase in the risk of CHD conferred by the M235T variant of the AGT gene. However, the relevance of this weakly positive overall association remains uncertain because it may be due to various residual biases, including HWE-violation and publication biases